Course Details

Objective

By end of course participants will be able to understand

• Understand the Principles of Scenario Analysis: Grasp the key concepts and methodologies behind scenario planning, including how it differs from traditional forecasting techniques.
• Develop Scenarios: Create multiple, plausible future scenarios based on analyzing trends, uncertainties, and key drivers of change.
• Evaluate Strategic Options: Assess business strategies, policies, or investments against different future scenarios to identify strengths, weaknesses, and potential risks.
• Enhance Decision-Making: Improve decision-making capabilities by applying scenario analysis to real-world problems, with an emphasis on long-term resilience and adaptability.
• Communicate Scenarios Effectively: Present complex scenarios in a clear, actionable format for stakeholders, enabling better alignment and collaborative strategic planning.

Content

Day 1: Introduction to Scenario Analysis

Objective: Understand the basics of scenario analysis and its importance in decision-making.

Introduction to Scenario Analysis

• What is Scenario Analysis?
• Importance of Scenario Analysis in business and strategy
• Difference between forecasting, trend analysis, and scenario analysis
• Key concepts: Uncertainty, Risks, and Assumptions
• Types of Scenarios: Exploratory vs Normative

Components of a Scenario

• Identifying key drivers of change
• Understanding external vs internal factors
• Scenario components: Assumptions, uncertainties, and critical factors
• Creating narratives: From quantitative data to qualitative insight

Case Study Discussion

• Reviewing real-world applications of Scenario Analysis (e.g., business, climate change, policy-making)
• Group activity: Identify key drivers in an existing case study
• Class discussion and feedback

Day 2: Identifying Key Drivers and Uncertainties

Identifying Key Drivers of Change

• Drivers of change: Technological, economic, political, social, environmental
• Techniques for identifying key drivers (e.g., PESTEL analysis)
• Mapping drivers to relevant factors in your scenario

Classifying Uncertainties

• Understanding different types of uncertainties (known, unknown, unknowable)
• High vs low impact vs high vs low certainty factors
• Techniques for analyzing uncertainties: Sensitivity Analysis, Cross-Impact Analysis

Practical Exercise

• Group activity: Identify and categorize drivers and uncertainties for a business case or current event
• Presentation of results by each group and feedback from peers

Assignments:

• Research how uncertainties in a specific industry (e.g., energy, technology) impact scenario analysis.

Day 3: Developing Scenarios

Scenario Building Process

• Introduction to the scenario-building framework
• How to develop plausible, challenging, and divergent scenarios
• Using qualitative and quantitative data to construct scenarios

Scenario Typology

• Exploratory Scenarios: Exploring possible future developments
• Normative Scenarios: Desired outcomes and goal-oriented scenarios
• Creating alternative scenarios (Best case, Worst case, and Base case)

Practical Exercise

• Hands-on group work: Develop 3-5 scenarios based on a chosen industry/organization
• Step-by-step walkthrough of scenario-building using identified drivers and uncertainties

Day 4: Quantitative Methods and Tools for Scenario Analysis

Objective: Introduce quantitative techniques and tools that can be used for scenario analysis.

Quantitative vs. Qualitative Scenario Analysis

• When and why to use quantitative methods
• Examples of tools: Monte Carlo simulations, Decision Trees, Sensitivity Analysis
• Introduction to scenario planning software (brief demo)

Monte Carlo Simulation for Scenario Analysis

• Understanding the Monte Carlo Method: What it is and how it works
• Using Monte Carlo simulations to model risk and uncertainty in scenarios
• Limitations and assumptions of quantitative methods

Hands-On Workshop

• Participants use Monte Carlo simulation or another tool (Excel or a software tool) to model a simple scenario
• Analyzing outcomes and interpreting results

Day 5: Implementing and Communicating Scenario Analysis

Decision-Making with Scenarios

• Using scenarios to inform strategic decision-making
• Evaluating and comparing scenarios for decision support
• Integrating scenario analysis into business strategy and planning

Communicating Scenarios to Stakeholders

• Best practices for presenting scenarios to decision-makers
• Visualizing scenarios: Scenario maps, risk assessments, and dashboards
• Handling uncertainties and complex results in presentations

Final Group Project and Presentations

• Groups present their final scenario analysis for a business or organization, including:
  • The methodology used
  • Key drivers and uncertainties identified
  • Developed scenarios and their implications
  • Recommendations based on scenario analysis

NOTE:

Pre-& Post Tests will be conducted.

Case Studies, Group Exercises, Group Discussions, Last Day reviews, and assessments will be carried out.

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Methodology

A highly interactive combination of lectures and discussion sessions will be managed to maximize the amount and quality of information and knowledge transfer. The sessions will start by raising the most relevant questions and motivating everybody to find the right answers. You will also be encouraged to raise your own questions and to share in the development of the right answers using your own analysis and experiences.  Tests of the multiple-choice type will be made available on a daily basis to examine the effectiveness of delivering the course.

All presentations are made in excellent colorful power point. Very useful Course Materials will be given.

• 30% Lectures
• 30% Workshops and work presentation
• 20% Group Work& Practical Exercises
• 20% Videos& General Discussions